Dreaming of an early House flip

khaavren

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Monday November 24, 2025 · 11:22 AM PST

2025/11/24 · 11:22

Interesting scenario developing that might result in us flipping the House early. Aaron Parnas has a good video on it:

YouTube Video

margin by date
when	what	Rep–Dem if WE WIN
now	current status	219 – 213
Dec 3	TN-7 special	219 – 214
Jan 5	GA-14 MTG retires	218 – 214 (a sure thing)
Jan 31	TX-18 special	218 – 215
Mar TBD	GA-14 special	219 – 215 (Dem won’t win)
Apr 16	NJ-11 special	219 – 216

Don’t get too excited just yet. The House won’t flip unless there are a couple more Republican early retirements, and even that may not be enough without pulling off a couple iffy special election wins. But if the stars align, we might see the House flip control in the next six months. Maybe even sooner if more rats follow MTG as she flees the sinking ship.

I have been secretly wishing for this scenario all this year, but it’s been too improbable to mention it before now. But I smell a new factor here — Republicans who want to stand up to Trump somehow but haven’t been able to without losing their seats now have an option: like Brave Sir Robin (Monty Python reference) they can bravely run away. They don’t need to worry about being beaten up in a fight because they can win simply by chickening out and throwing in the sponge. And if enough of them flee, they can ensure Mike Johnson will be punished and Trump will be impeached. And if they’re bitter enough over losing their cush, corrupt jobs, they can enjoy messing up their former colleagues too. I can’t wait to see James Comer and Gym Jordan called to account.

I do wonder which Dem will hold the gavel next. Hakim Jeffries is of course the obvious option, but lots of us think he’s too big a wuss to lead the fight he’s going to have to engage in. I can think of a few Dems I’d like to see running the House, but none seem too likely. Who has both the spine and the political savvy to lead the opposition party?

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