What a difference a year makes
In 2024, Trump won because young men cut themselves a slice of the MAGA hype. But like many decisions that seem sensible through a late-night tequila lens, dawn's light illuminated the folly of an ill-considered choice. In the 2025 elections, these young men returned home. Good.
Some left-wing purists might say "Feck 'em." I say, "Welcome back. Just don't do it again."
The evidence for this buyer's remorse is the demographics of the November 2025 elections. The Daily Mail (I know, "Daily Fail." But even a blind squirrel can sometimes find a nut) reported:
Just a year ago in the presidential race, Trump won male voters between the ages of 18 and 29 over Kamala Harris by a margin of 49 to 48 percent. The race for this demographic was largely won on the issue of the economy, according to pollsters.
It was an extraordinary 12-point shift from four years earlier, the biggest of any demographic group.
But in the Virginia governor race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won young men by 17 points. In the New Jersey governor race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill did so by 14 points.
This rapprochement was bicoastal. The report adds:
In New York, it was an avalanche as Zohran Mamdani won 67 percent of men under 30, compared to his rival Andrew Cuomo's 26 percent. Only five percent voted Republican.
Over in California, 74 percent of young men voted for Proposition 50, a redistricting measure heavily backed by the Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.
The limited value of lying
Every demographic has its own issues. However, economic security is a universal desire. Trump promised sunshine and lollipops. He sold a vision of an America restored to manufacturing dominance. And he warned people they would be embarrassed by economic riches beyond cupidity's dreams.
In doing so, he channeled the GOP's 1928 campaign promise of,"A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." Herbert Hoover rode that optimistic commitment to the White House. History records the depressing aftermath.
In both cases, campaign puffery proved that rhetoric is no guarantee of results. Talk may be cheap for the speaker. But for the listener, it was ruinous. The 1929 stock market crash triggered an era of dumbass tariffs that led to the Great Depression. In 2025, Trump started with dumbass tariffs. And then delivered an economy treading water at best, while the promised rewards remain theoretical.
It could have been worse. But the man with a bully's vainglorious toughness proved to be weak-spined. Trump lived up to the damning sobriquet "TACO" (Trump always chickens out). His import tax policy has had a drunk's hand on the wheel.
They feared Trump — now they fear losing more
The Republicans dissected their electoral carnage and declared the problem was not too much Trump; it was that there was not enough of him. Their excuse for failure was that Trump was not on the ballot.
This is not the salve they imagine. In contemporary Republican politics, all roads lead to Trump. He is why they win or lose elections, whether or not he is a candidate. Far more problematically, Trump will never again be on a ballot. If Republicans can only win with him on the ticket, they are in a dark place.
Some GOP incumbents have realized this bitter truth. A New York Times news analysis reveals Trump's stranglehold on Republican incumbents is loosening. The paper opines:
President Trump has always defied the laws of political gravity, seemingly impervious to setbacks that would sink any other figure and immune from the traditional ebb and flow of campaign cycles.
But his capitulation in the fight over releasing the Epstein files, and other recent developments, suggest that, when it comes to Congress, the president is subject to at least some of the same currents as his predecessors, as the first signs of his lame duck status emerge.
The NYT lists additional warning signs that Trump's hegemony is not absolute. To wit:
The willingness of congressional Republicans to defy Mr. Trump and back legislation requiring the disclosure of federal files on Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender and one-time Trump friend, was the clearest evidence yet that GOP lawmakers are starting to look beyond Mr. Trump's tenure to their self-preservation in midterm elections next year.
There are other signs as well, notably the refusal by Senate Republicans to bow to Mr. Trump's demand to gut the filibuster during the shutdown fight, and resistance in some states to his intense push to redraw House district maps to cement the GOP's hold and prevent a Democratic takeover that would imperil the president.
They should have known
In addition, one key to Trump's 2024 success, the podbros, are showing that they are not blind followers. Trump's machismo pleased their testosterone impulses. But Trump has let them down. In the words of Andrew Schultz:
"Everything [Trump] campaigned on, I believed he wanted to do. And now he's doing the exact opposite thing of every single fucking thing. … I voted for none of this. He's doing the exact opposite of everything I voted for."
I don't know why Schutz is surprised. Disappointing people has been Trump's signature move ever since he first stabbed someone in the back. Oh well, even slow learners eventually get it.
2026
The Democrats' prospects for 2026 are improving. The betting markets favor a Democratic House in 2027. The Senate, whose seat distribution gives Republicans a structural advantage, was once considered a surefire GOP hold. Now it no longer looks like a lock in the midterms. Although the odds still suggest it is likely to remain under Republican control.
It is almost a year before Americans will decide who controls Congress. Who knows what the hell will happen? But Democrats feel better about life than Republicans do. This edge points to a new political truth. The voter is electing Democrats at a time when the Democratic Party has the favorability of a tax audit.
The lesson? It’s all about the candidates. And the Democrats are running winners.
