UPDATE: Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 · 3:16:39 PM +00:00 · xaxnar
I should mention I am going ahead with the model train order despite the Trump tariff price hike.
That being said, I was just looking at some new Lionel product announcements in a series I had been buying. The price on the new stuff is so much higher I may skip buying them.
I expect this story is being repeated across many small businesses now, rippling through the economy.
Among other things, I enjoy model trains. It’s a hobby I’ve been enjoying for decades across 3 family generations.
Several months back I put in an advance order for a particular Lionel train set through a major dealer. (So pretty! — and it even has an App and Bluetooth. But I digress.)
Most Lionel production is overseas these days, where they have the specialized tooling and expertise — and lower labor costs. That’s the case for the model train industry in general.
I just got a notice that they should be shipping it to me shortly — but there’s a hitch. Here’s the email I got:
Dear Valued Customer,
Lionel has notified us that they will be shipping some new items, which is exciting news. They really make some very nice products, and these will be a nice addition to your hobby. Our records show that you have one or more of these items on order with us. As you probably heard, the Trump Administration has imposed tariffs on imported goods which includes Lionel Trains. Lionel had to pay tariffs on the items they received which are listed below and Lionel was forced to pass the tariff on to us by adding a surcharge to our cost.
So, what does this mean for you:
1. We will be adjusting the selling price on these new items as listed below.
2. If you agree with the new price, then there is nothing you need to do. When the product arrives, we will ship your order as in the past.
3. If you decide you do not want the item(s), then you should respond to this notification immediately by email or phone (if you do not have access to email).
Since these tariffs could change at any time, we suggest you respond only to the items on this list and not future deliveries as the tariff could be reduced or even eliminated altogether. You will have a chance to respond to any of those item(s) in the future when the tariffs get accessed on new items as they are received into the United States.
We apologize for any inconvenience
Some observations:
1) It’s refreshing to see a company explain who put the tariff in place (Trump) and who ends up paying it. Ultimately — Me. My understanding is some companies are afraid to make this known to their customers.
2) The advice to wait on future order price adjustments because tariffs can change is prudent — because they’ve been all over the place. That they may be lower or even removed is overly optimistic in my opinion.
In some cases, companies have been able to ‘buy’ exemptions by flattering/bribing Trump and his lackeys and making promises they don’t have to keep as long as they make Trump look good.
3) It looks like about a 10% tariff in this case, which is better than the up to 145% numbers that have been thrown around — depending on how pissed Trump was with China at any given moment — but not as great as pre-Trump levels which were on average 1-2% if at all.
4) In practice, tariffs are effectively a national sales tax — and sales taxes can be very regressive. But don’t expect any Republicans to admit it’s a tax.
5) It’s possible courts may eventually rule the tariffs were imposed illegally by Trump. If so, the money collected will have to be refunded. But by whom, and to whom? It will ripple through the shipping chain and be a paperwork nightmare.
6) The idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing and the jobs that go-with back to America is ludicrous. It would take years to recreate the manufacturing capacity and the skills base to do so. This doesn’t just apply to making model trains.
7) Also, a lot of jobs are not coming back because production efficiencies and new technologies mean as much or more can now be made with fewer people.
8) Further, high tariffs could destroy the model train industry. Profit margins are typically very tight. It remains to be seen if the tariff levels of the moment will damage the toy train industry — and other industries.
9) These tariffs are not just inflationary — they are creating economic uncertainty. I got this email because the tariff-induced price change had to be added on to the original price from when I placed the order months ago. How does anyone — business or individual — make any long term plans when tariffs can change prices on a whim at any moment?
I thought I’d write this up because in my opinion it makes a useful simple example of how tariffs are not working the way Trump would have us believe.
Meanwhile, now that it’s after Thanksgiving, it’s time for me to start thinking about setting up a holiday train layout. It’s too much fun — every year I try something different. (The photo up top is from 2 years ago.) Creating an artificial little world is a needed sanity break from what’s happening in the real one.
Of course, it’s possible to go to extremes…
